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2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Killroy1999

Killroy1999

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 21, 2004
Location
Campbell, CA
Moto(s)
Zero SR
By request, here it is!

I hope I did not steal anyone's thunder. :afm199



About my investments:

I'm 80% Real Estate. Mostly out-of-state rentals. Read "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"
I have a small team to do house flips if I find a local unicorn
I like passive, S&P500 ETFs (ESGV)
IRA Rollover, ROTH, HSA, 529 College plan, Taxable account
For the paper I own, I yearly rebalance 80% S&P500 ETF, 10% International, and 10% Bonds.
Crypto, have a little, but the feeling is meh
I like HELOCs, like the CMG "All In One Loan"

If my net worth tracking is correct, I have seen my net worth double since 2018. (That has more to do with inflation than anything else)
Most of my focus is on paying down mortgage debt on my rentals
I rent my home
I'm hoping to Fat FIRE. The Goal is 5 years.






Discuss!
 
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My plan is not all that different than yours. We are 70 percent RE in Sonoma County, no mortgages, 10 percent or so in bonds the rest in IRA/Roth IRA equities.

As SS will kick up our income in 2027 this year we will be about 70 percent in Roth IRA with the goal to get that near 100 percent by the time we reach 70 in 2 years.

Most of our equities are in AAPL and index funds.
 
Also hoping to fatFIRE. Or at least ChubbyFIRE. May have a liquidity event this year or next.

Currently I'm more around 50% 401k/Roth, 50% active investing (options, self-picked tickers, etc). Since I started off a few years ago with more of an 80/20 split between 401k vs self directed, I feel ok about my own performance.

Biggest winners so far this year are NVDA calls, CVNA puts, LCD calls, GME calls, CSCO covered calls to rebalance out of them a bit, PLTR shares + calls, SMR CSPs.

Some plays I've entered for the longer term:
SMR
SRUUF
URA

As the hype cools a tad around renewables / solar, I'm interested in this new nuclear technology (smaller modular reactors that can be built cheaper and scaled up as needs grow). I looked at uranium stuff specifically because China alone has already built or are in the process of building more reactors than the entire global supply of uranium could power, going off of some news articles about it. We'll see how that plays out. The US and other western countries are also revisiting nuclear and I have a feeling with Lord Dampnut back in power renewables may take a further hit / nuclear may get a boost.

Plays for the short term (< 1 year or even < 1 month)
AMD wheeling
SMR wheeling
Maaaaybe XRT - it's got some funky stuff going on potentially linked to GME, crazy short %, etc.
META - Their recent AI flop aside, they're still crushing it. I've stayed out till now which is maybe a mistake and giving in to FOMO, but....while I don't like it long term, it might make a nice play for the short term gains.

I still don't really fuck with crypto but took small positions in BTC and Solana. Doubt they'll do much but you never know.

As for real estate - I'd be curious as to how you're sourcing / handling out of state rentals. It'd be much more affordable to spread a bit around than trying to acquire bay area rentals.

edit - Oh, and I also started buying PGE shares to wheel. If you can't beat em, join em. Fucking rate hike after rate hike. $200-$300 bills for the same usage that used to cost me $100.
 
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NorCalAthlete said:
As for real estate - I'd be curious as to how you're sourcing / handling out of state rentals. It'd be much more affordable to spread a bit around than trying to acquire bay area rentals.
Click to expand...

I have property managers handle all of the leasing and maintenance. You could have a bad time if you don't have a good one. They take a % of the rent and deposit what is left in my account. The income will just about cover my retirement once I pay off the mortgages.

I have a HELOC, so 100% of my income goes directly to lowering my principal balance.

I had a local agent look over the place before I bought and I looked at the inspections and numbers.
 
i just reset my 401k and hsa and roths

found out my company only does % for 401k and not dollar amounts, yup so when i checked i missed my max last year by like $300 bucks or so :(
 
The 2024 thread ended with discussion of the now deflated bump from the presidential results.

Now we are faced with good jobs data which tanked the market as "those in the know" think that will delay meaningful rate cuts by the Fed.

Which, of course, means a fight is ahead between the Fed that wants cooling inflation to continue with the new admin which wants growth growth growth with no thought to inflation it seems.

Should be interesting and bumpy.
 
I don't think it's going to be bumpy (not yet at least.) Despite the recent market declines you always have to keep in the back of the mind that the movement came from reaction to overall economic strength, not weakness. It's like a toddler having a tantrum before bed because they only got one scoop of ice cream instead of two. The market will get overbought short-term and then correct, and that's a normal dynamic in a rising bull market.

Forward looking, the SP500 PE is now around 23 - not excessive at all.
 
Yeah, the markets are just mad that interest rates might need to stay "high" for longer than they hoped.
 
I guarantee that one of us will be correct! :unsure:
 
Think they'll be bumpy because they already have been bumpy, essentially trading sideways since the end of September. More recently the signs/messaging conveying instability is probably affecting trading. I'd guess that things will settle down once everyone's all settled in and a few months down the road the upward trend will continue.
 
The 10year bond says we are in for a rough ride, nobody knows till Cheeto gets into office and how he may tweet and contradict what other ppl are saying about his policies.

Tbh market was climbing up to the point he tweeted that the last report about his tariffs were all wrong
 
Looking over the CPI report, as near as I can tell, ongoing increases are being driven by housing cost and car insurance/repair. The former is probably being driven by Fed interest rates driving increased financing expense, and the latter is a lagging indicator.. It takes time for insurance companies to bake into the premium the higher price of cars and home repairs that happened during the pandemic years.

If anything, a reasonable case could be made that a continued reduction in interest rates may have a fairly muted effect on overall inflation, and the reduction would help dramatically reduce the annual federal deficit. Dollar is also very strong, too strong, which buys Trump some latitude in crafting a thoughtful tariff regime? I think the economic wind is blowing in his favor right now.
 
The market likes inflation because companies have the opportunity to pad profits and "inflation" is a good excuse to raise prices
 
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Gold is knocking at $2,700.00's door.....
 
Lots of money made in the last couple of days. TT ban should really help Goog (YT) / meta? If they go to YT they can actually get paid directly for their content.

TT CEO is a fool, made the wrong moves every step of the way. Threatening to go totally dark is just the latest blunder, good luck recovering more than pennies on the dollar of your investment if you've set fire to it on the way out.
 
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