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2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Even after this crisis resolves — after Hormuz fully reopens, after tankers are back on route, after inventories rebuild — the oil market is fundamentally changed because of the latent effects that need to be priced in and the damage done to the infrastructure in the Gulf States. Not to mention the new risk premium that has to be priced into anything passing through Hormuz. Think about what a permanent $20 increase in the oil price floor means for input costs across the entire global economy. Every gallon of gasoline, every heating bill, every airline ticket, every piece of plastic, every fertilizer bag, every food transport cost — permanently higher. Not because of a spike. Because of a structural reset.
www.meidasplus.com

The Price of War

How the Strait of Hormuz Is Breaking the Global Economy
www.meidasplus.com www.meidasplus.com
 
Just like the prices never came down after covid, once they can get people paying more, they'll stick to it.
 
Fascinating geek reading
“Around the same time I discovered the industrial policy literature, the consensus was shifting within the big economic development agencies (the World Bank and the IMF). Whereas in previous decades, these organizations generally recommended against government meddling in the economy’s industrial structure, they’ve recently started to consider the kind of interventionist policies that Studwell recommends. In 2019, the IMF’s Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov wrote a paper called “The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy”. They conclude that a Studwellian approach, if executed competently, can help a developing country grow faster than it would from just letting the market take its course…”
www.noahpinion.blog

Updated thoughts on industrial policy

Economic consensus is changing, but it has a long way to go.
www.noahpinion.blog www.noahpinion.blog
 
Moral of the story: Some regulation is good. Who would have thought?
 
,,,Just to eliminate any doubt, Kevin Warsh is going to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Assuming the administration drops the absurd criminal referral against Jerome Powell, Warsh takes the chair. Much of the focus in his confirmation hearing centered on two things: the direction of interest rates and Fed independence...
www.meidasplus.com

The Warsh Man for the Job

Why Kevin Warsh’s policies are guaranteed to fail
www.meidasplus.com www.meidasplus.com
 
Re: fed independence

Answer is overtly political.
But I will state it plainly.

Has the current president put anyone in a place of power that hasn't sworn fealty to him?

Does anyone believe this is an exception?

Especially an assignment that he himself has shown so much interest in controlling (but is supposed to be out of the hands of the executive)?
 
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I am just chucking this into the ether to get it off my chest. My wife and I just turned a sizable chunk of our net worth over to an "adviser" at Fidelity, which consists mostly of her 401(k) accounts. One objective was to simplify our investment spread, putting it under one roof. Another objective for me is to see how well they perform. My wife had two 401(k)'s with them that I neglected to roll into IRAs when she left her final two companies before retiring. We consolidated some smaller shared IRAs in the process. Although Fidelity wanted to bring "my" accounts on board, I chose not to do so. Our assets are commingled, but I don't want them to muck up my performance evaluation; it would make it difficult for me to assess their performance, if that makes sense.

Anyway, as I have oft stated, I am a cheap Englishman, ergo it is hard for me to pay someone to "manage" a portion of our portfolio, as I am quite pleased with our accomplishments and gains in that regard.

Seeing their Monte Carlo results was fun and informative at the very least. We will meet in October to assess our performance. I will have no problem firing the rep if I am not pleased with their performance. Continuing with the thought that I want to spend our son's inheritance..... :geek:
 
How many of you barfers have annuities?

Why isn't this talked about more? My aunt just briefly explained it and I am struggling to find ppl to talk about the pros/cons, my aunts all pros so
 
FXCLM5 said:
How many of you barfers have annuities?

Why isn't this talked about more? My aunt just briefly explained it and I am struggling to find ppl to talk about the pros/cons, my aunts all pros so
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We had them and sold them a few years back.

The performance reflected the fact that annuities are money makers for the vendor, not the client.
 
GAJ said:
We had them and sold them a few years back.

The performance reflected the fact that annuities are money makers for the vendor, not the client.
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Yea, but if I squirrel something away in there now, 20 years and it settles I get paid out like 18% of initial equity annually for the remainder of my life.

And that's like the basic set rate, if you go market indices it starts lower first 20 years and then climbs each year but has a floor still if market crashes

The funds was taxed already so when you do withdrawal you get weird tax breaks as well.

I don't understand the negatives and would like to be exposed to more pros/cons to make a decision meow, yes sp500 could make more, but this is the point about diversification and curious why it's rarely brought up
 
Rider fees, annual administration and maintenance fees, as well as commissions paid to the adviser who sold you the annuity......I don't see the point
 
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900ss said:
I am just chucking this into the ether to get it off my chest. My wife and I just turned a sizable chunk of our net worth over to an "adviser" at Fidelity, which consists mostly of her 401(k) accounts. One objective was to simplify our investment spread, putting it under one roof. Another objective for me is to see how well they perform. My wife had two 401(k)'s with them that I neglected to roll into IRAs when she left her final two companies before retiring. We consolidated some smaller shared IRAs in the process. Although Fidelity wanted to bring "my" accounts on board, I chose not to do so. Our assets are commingled, but I don't want them to muck up my performance evaluation; it would make it difficult for me to assess their performance, if that makes sense.

Anyway, as I have oft stated, I am a cheap Englishman, ergo it is hard for me to pay someone to "manage" a portion of our portfolio, as I am quite pleased with our accomplishments and gains in that regard.

Seeing their Monte Carlo results was fun and informative at the very least. We will meet in October to assess our performance. I will have no problem firing the rep if I am not pleased with their performance. Continuing with the thought that I want to spend our son's inheritance..... :geek:
Click to expand...
I just dumped Fidelity and went to NIM
 
I also work with Stifel.
 
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