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2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Weird year for our portfolio but my wife's AAPL has helped drag it above 10 percent growth which may only be temporary because of you know who.
 
FXCLM5 said:
Spacex is IPO next week

I made a bet with a friend. Lrcx vs mu who would hit $100 first back in 2024, Mu just 10x for me haha, Nvidia moved another 10% or so but I also missed SanDisk and sk hynix, but lrcx already 3x for me as well since 2024
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I made a pretty healthy amount selling large amounts of MU puts, but it would've been better to just buy the damn stock and ride the rocket ship.
 
This was the first year in 10 we did not withdraw money from our IRA accounts, though did do a Roth rollover.

For 10 years ending in 2025 we withdrew about 9 percent/year, not to cover daily costs per se, but for taxes on Roth rollovers and major remodels at two of our properties which totaled almost $300k.

We are now a bit over 80 percent Roth at age 69 w/ SS kicking in for both of use late this year.

The interesting thing though is, due of course to pretty darned good market conditions those 10 year though we are hardly aggressive investors, is that the total IRA+Roth balance is 14 percent higher than it was in 2016 when we started that trend of annual withdrawals. As we were retired in 2008 we could not add at all to the IRA balances, it all had to come from internal growth.

Just food for thought for those noodling effects on IRA of steady withdrawals.

Obviously history does not predict the future but I'm a bit surprised that it came out that way what with all the hand wringing in the financial press over the 4 percent withdrawal rule of thumb and whatnot.
 
Up 30% YTD. my only goal is to beat the market. SPCX IPO might tank the whole market its a total dumpster fire. Their financials are horrid.
 
Caddywumpus said:
Up 30% YTD. my only goal is to beat the market. SPCX IPO might tank the whole market its a total dumpster fire. Their financials are horrid.
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SPCX looking for 1.75T valuation had like 6.5B EBIDTA in 2025. AAPL was valued similarly in 2020 and reported 77B EBIDTA

What is going on here :loco
 
Abacinator said:
SPCX looking for 1.75T valuation had like 6.5B EBIDTA in 2025. AAPL was valued similarly in 2020 and reported 77B EBIDTA

What is going on here :loco
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EBIDTA is bullshit.

In 2025, SpaceX reported consolidated revenue of $18.67 billion and an operating loss of $2.59 billion, though its adjusted EBITDA was a positive $6.58 billion.

Its a money losing business. Friday either its going to suck a lot of capital out of the market and rage upwards or nobody bites and its going to tank some things.

Im not sure which. Rational me says people see a turd and stay away. Rational me also knows people are dumb as rocks and will throw money at the Mars man.
 
Largest IPO hype train of the 21st century (so far)
Why?
-90% cult of Musk
-9% AI hype bullseye timing beating other players to IPO
- .99% covering the sky with satellites and controlling data flow well underway
- .01% mars/ space (wtf?)
 
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Elon is our current Einstein/Edison

I don't follow any of his crazy shenanigans but just glad I got in Tesla when it was under $100
 
I would agree with Edison, definitely not Einstein.

The real history of Edison is not as glorified as many would like to think,
which is actually a hilarious way to bring up a comparison to musk, as Edison's shenanigans with Tesla (Nikola) were actually pathetic and shameful.
 
Seems to me the hype for SpaceX will either be self fulfilling, or a good way for the early investors to cash out and walk away. That said, if they keep getting government contracts they'll be fine probably?
 
Musk has paid AT LEAST $277 million dollars on record to..... uhm...... His favorite TACO joint...

so those sweet government contract should keep rolling in for a while at least, while the federal government is outsourcing to private contractors for much of what they used to do themselves.
 
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augustiron said:
Musk has paid AT LEAST $277 million dollars on record to..... uhm...... His favorite TACO joint...

so those sweet government contract should keep rolling in for a while at least, while the federal government is outsourcing to private contractors for much of what they used to do themselves.
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He did do that, but he also made that 277 million into bajillions

Again, I don't follow Elon nor all his BS, but i am just trying to make $$$ off of him
 
Could be a WeWork, could pull it off, but the real winners are the early investors who get a return on their investment before it does, whatever it does
 
N4teTheGreat said:
Could be a WeWork, could pull it off, but the real winners are the early investors who get a return on their investment before it does, whatever it does
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Exactly, the retail investors like us get hosed in most IPOs. The majority of them fall below their opening price a few months afterwards
 
N4teTheGreat said:
Seems to me the hype for SpaceX will either be self fulfilling, or a good way for the early investors to cash out and walk away. That said, if they keep getting government contracts they'll be fine probably?
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I think starship is and will always be, a flop. Mush says it will get 100 tons into orbit per flight. I don’t think it ever will. It’s yet to reach orbit and if it ever does, I don’t think it will take even 50 tons with it. I would prefer space x not be part of my retirement portfolio.

I can’t believe anyone puts their faith in musk the bull shit artist

 
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