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2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon—make up nearly 30% of the THE S&P 500 indexs

I've decreased that in my basket portfolio (basically the S&P 50 index) due to the tech bubble pop risk
 
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF)...look at it's performance the last five years. I'm like...gawddamn it!!
 
Killroy1999 said:
Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon—make up nearly 30% of the THE S&P 500 indexs

I've decreased that in my basket portfolio (basically the S&P 50 index) due to the tech bubble pop risk
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What are you investing in instead?
 
cheez said:
What are you investing in instead?
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I'm still investing in Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, just not 30% of my portfolio like owning a S&P 500 index


I'm not owning Tesla, Meta or Disney anymore.
Never bought SpaceX


A lot of folks will prosper with just investing in S&P 500 index, like VOO, but it is very at risk for a AI bubble pop. It is funny how capitalization-weighted indexes like S&P 500 ignore fundamentals.
 
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MC BumSlap said:
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF)...look at it's performance the last five years. I'm like...gawddamn it!!
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It has done well, but the rest of us need and want to know how will it do going forward? I don't, by the way.
 
so is the current AI boom driving the stock market gonna end like the dot com bom?
 
tuxumino said:
so is the current AI boom driving the stock market gonna end like the dot com bom?
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According to a video I watched...no. The main difference is most of the AI race is being conducted by huge established tech corporations with billions in profit. They are spending a relatively small portion of the money on AI and all still have huge income sources that have nothing to do with AI. If AI fails, the companies won't be affected much, as right now AI just represents an expense to them. They can go back to using their surplus money to buy back more stock, which could further boost the market, not crash it. It will have the most effect on companies like Invidia, which make the chips for AI as a primary income source, but not the other big players.

The dot com bubble involved over investment in tech companies that did not have any proven income sources beyond investment capital. It's a totally different scenario.
 
The market at any given moment sit in balance between the bulls and the bears. For every analysis claiming it’s going down you’ll find another saying the opposite. There’s been no shortage of bears over the past 15 years calling for an imminent crash that never happened. You’d have lost out on a lot of gains had you listened.
The bears seem to be gathering steam and selling a more convincing picture. Multiple wars, seriously impact to energy supplies and global shipping, end of QE, political interference and instability. There have been corrections for a lot less. Where it goes from here no one knows but a correction will suck down the good with the bad.
 
Getting laid off was the best thing that ever happened to my company stocks. Even after using them to love for two years, I'm still well up from where I was when they sent me packing.
 
Voo? I own some in one of my portfolios and am of course pleased. I have the majority remnant of my 401k sitting in VMRXX at Wells Fargo. BARF market crystal ballers, is VOO still a buy?
 
Reli said:
Only if you're trickling in. Not worth a really major buy at these levels.

Also I personally would use a blend of VTI and VXUS instead

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Sp500 still the #1 etf that buffet says set and forget, I agree small caps or total overall market are stronger this year then sp500

But I would never tell anybody to put anything above sp5000 index like a voo or spym

Also you should buy spym, it's share price is 80/90 instead of like 600+ for voo, the expense fee is like .001 vs .003 or something 3x cheaper then voo
 
But I would never tell anybody to put anything above sp5000 index like a voo or spy
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Why not? 87% of VTI is already the S&P500, and the remaining 13% is everything below it. Makes more sense than buying separate large-cap and small cap funds.

As far as SPYM goes, I'm seeing a 0.02% fee, not 0.01%
 
Reli said:
Why not? 87% of VTI is already the S&P500, and the remaining 13% is everything below it. Makes more sense than buying separate large-cap and small cap funds.
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It's a reason there is a top 500, and they already cover plethora of segments.

Why are you bothering with the leftover 13% that more then likelihood of failing in their segment earlier then those that are already in the sp500

Again I wouldn't place anything over the sp500
 
There's a reason why nearly every advisor tells everyone except the oldest or most conservative investors to put some of their money in smallcaps. Because they have the potential to grow more aggressively than large caps.
 
bojangle said:
According to a video I watched...no. The main difference is most of the AI race is being conducted by huge established tech corporations with billions in profit. They are spending a relatively small portion of the money on AI and all still have huge income sources that have nothing to do with AI. If AI fails, the companies won't be affected much, as right now AI just represents an expense to them. They can go back to using their surplus money to buy back more stock, which could further boost the market, not crash it. It will have the most effect on companies like Invidia, which make the chips for AI as a primary income source, but not the other big players.

The dot com bubble involved over investment in tech companies that did not have any proven income sources beyond investment capital. It's a totally different scenario.
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I'm not sure about that.

Google is spending so much on AI, they are negative cash flow

Lots of problems with AI valuations.

arstechnica.com

Google just had its first negative cash flow quarter due to massive AI spending

Google continues to report big quarterly revenue, but its AI spending has skyrocketed.
arstechnica.com arstechnica.com
 
Reli said:
There's a reason why nearly every advisor tells everyone except the oldest or most conservative investors to put some of their money in smallcaps. Because they have the potential to grow more aggressively than large caps.
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Exactly, a couple of the best performers over the past year were only recently added to the S&P. Sandisk last fall and Micron a few months ago.
Paid off for anyone not focused only on the S&P
 
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