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2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Voo? I own some in one of my portfolios and am of course pleased. I have the majority remnant of my 401k sitting in VMRXX at Wells Fargo. BARF market crystal ballers, is VOO still a buy?
 
Reli said:
Only if you're trickling in. Not worth a really major buy at these levels.

Also I personally would use a blend of VTI and VXUS instead

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Sp500 still the #1 etf that buffet says set and forget, I agree small caps or total overall market are stronger this year then sp500

But I would never tell anybody to put anything above sp5000 index like a voo or spym

Also you should buy spym, it's share price is 80/90 instead of like 600+ for voo, the expense fee is like .001 vs .003 or something 3x cheaper then voo
 
But I would never tell anybody to put anything above sp5000 index like a voo or spy
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Why not? 87% of VTI is already the S&P500, and the remaining 13% is everything below it. Makes more sense than buying separate large-cap and small cap funds.

As far as SPYM goes, I'm seeing a 0.02% fee, not 0.01%
 
Reli said:
Why not? 87% of VTI is already the S&P500, and the remaining 13% is everything below it. Makes more sense than buying separate large-cap and small cap funds.
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It's a reason there is a top 500, and they already cover plethora of segments.

Why are you bothering with the leftover 13% that more then likelihood of failing in their segment earlier then those that are already in the sp500

Again I wouldn't place anything over the sp500
 
There's a reason why nearly every advisor tells everyone except the oldest or most conservative investors to put some of their money in smallcaps. Because they have the potential to grow more aggressively than large caps.
 
bojangle said:
According to a video I watched...no. The main difference is most of the AI race is being conducted by huge established tech corporations with billions in profit. They are spending a relatively small portion of the money on AI and all still have huge income sources that have nothing to do with AI. If AI fails, the companies won't be affected much, as right now AI just represents an expense to them. They can go back to using their surplus money to buy back more stock, which could further boost the market, not crash it. It will have the most effect on companies like Invidia, which make the chips for AI as a primary income source, but not the other big players.

The dot com bubble involved over investment in tech companies that did not have any proven income sources beyond investment capital. It's a totally different scenario.
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I'm not sure about that.

Google is spending so much on AI, they are negative cash flow

Lots of problems with AI valuations.

arstechnica.com

Google just had its first negative cash flow quarter due to massive AI spending

Google continues to report big quarterly revenue, but its AI spending has skyrocketed.
arstechnica.com arstechnica.com
 
Reli said:
There's a reason why nearly every advisor tells everyone except the oldest or most conservative investors to put some of their money in smallcaps. Because they have the potential to grow more aggressively than large caps.
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Exactly, a couple of the best performers over the past year were only recently added to the S&P. Sandisk last fall and Micron a few months ago.
Paid off for anyone not focused only on the S&P
 
BillSmith said:
I'm putting this up as a good call...

Everybody cashed in on this, right? ;)
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The last bar I bought from Costco was $2,640.00. I would wait until they were selling within $20.00 to $40.00 of spot. The best I did was about $5.00 over spot. The Executive membership and Citi Costco card combined gets you a 4% discount. They were selling bars last week (briefly) within about $40.00 of spot IIRC.
 
Costco's silver offerings are currently very near spot. Again, with the double-whammy membership, 4% rebate comes back to you. Net cost now is under spot for me.
 
Blankpage said:
Exactly, a couple of the best performers over the past year were only recently added to the S&P. Sandisk last fall and Micron a few months ago.
Paid off for anyone not focused only on the S&P
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Micron is at the center of the AI bubble debate:

Why Micron Is Feared to Be in a Bubble:
  • Staggering Stock Gains: Shares surged dramatically
  • Cyclical Vulnerability: Historically, memory chips suffer from severe boom-and-bust cycles. Critics argue that peak AI infrastructure spending will eventually lead to an oversupply glut.
  • High Fixed Costs: Manufacturing advanced memory requires immense capital expenditure, leaving Micron exposed to sharp profit compression if demand drops
 
Killroy1999 said:
Micron is at the center of the AI bubble debate:

Why Micron Is Feared to Be in a Bubble:
  • Staggering Stock Gains: Shares surged dramatically
  • Cyclical Vulnerability: Historically, memory chips suffer from severe boom-and-bust cycles. Critics argue that peak AI infrastructure spending will eventually lead to an oversupply glut.
  • High Fixed Costs: Manufacturing advanced memory requires immense capital expenditure, leaving Micron exposed to sharp profit compression if demand drops
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You could do that with any stock list bearish or bullish reasons why it should move in one direction or another.
A decade ago people counted APPL out, stating Samsung and the Chinese were stealing market share. It traded at a pe of just 10 and up 1000% since.
If AI is a bubble there’s a lot more at risk than just the chip makers. So far the data center buildout is mostly US based. There’s still a lot of room to grow when other markets try to catch up. Or the whole thing blows up before then, who knows.
Micron has the latest ASML tech on their side, the Chinese don’t. Plus a ban on Chinese chips in the US. Micron is likely in good shape for a few more quarters.
 
IMO MU is not going down any time soon, and there was very good money to be made selling puts on it for the last few months. I made enough money on it to offset some of my META losses. :LOL:

GPUs require immense amounts of high bandwidth memory (HBM) and MU is literally sold out for years into the future. The contracts are already signed and will be paid regardless of where this whole thing goes.
 
Blankpage said:
You could do that with any stock list bearish or bullish reasons why it should move in one direction or another.
A decade ago people counted APPL out, stating Samsung and the Chinese were stealing market share. It traded at a pe of just 10 and up 1000% since.
If AI is a bubble there’s a lot more at risk than just the chip makers. So far the data center buildout is mostly US based. There’s still a lot of room to grow when other markets try to catch up. Or the whole thing blows up before then, who knows.
Micron has the latest ASML tech on their side, the Chinese don’t. Plus a ban on Chinese chips in the US. Micron is likely in good shape for a few more quarters.
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I think there is going to be a lot of Chinese competition in AI



and

 
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And i'll be damned if spcx isn't climbing back up.

I was told long ago by a very close associate of his, "never bet against Elmo"
 
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