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2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Wha
Caddywumpus said:
They, like basically every big player have had positions since 2008.

Their cost basis is pennies
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What....

Xai which became SpaceX is like 2-3 years old, Nvidia spent 2bill in Oct 2025

No idea where pennies and 2008 global recession your pulling from
 
FXCLM5 said:
Wha

What....

Xai which became SpaceX is like 2-3 years old, Nvidia spent 2bill in Oct 2025

No idea where pennies and 2008 global recession your pulling from
Click to expand...
In 2024, SpaceX's valuation grew dramatically through secondary share sales and tender offers. The company started the year valued at roughly $210 billion in June 2024 ($112 per share), before surging to $350 billion by December 2024.

So since 2024 its 8xd in value... Googles investment goes back almost to the beginning and so does Harvards. This was also pre internal splits to make the stock more palpable to retail.

From what I remember the S1 of SPCX was complete bullshit and their sales will be 12,000 per person per year via their AI in like 10 years.
 
augustiron said:
And i'll be damned if spcx isn't climbing back up.

I was told long ago by a very close associate of his, "never bet against Elmo"
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Is it climbing back up from the dumps? Yes

Does its total gain of 6% since initial offering justify the hype? No
 
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
 
The late Bob Brinker's advice was no more than 4% of any single holding. Is your finance lady interested in new clients by any chance?
 
WoodsChick said:
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
Click to expand...
I think the rule of thumb is 10 percent for one stock but my wife has violated that for decades with Apple and done very well.

It sounds like your adviser is on the ball so talk to her.

You DO want to be more cautious as you get older and portfolio diversification is a good thins.

We are heaviest in Real Estate with 53 percent of our total assets there, 25 percent in stocks, 7 percent in munis and the rest in money market.

I think we are moving some of that money market money to a dividend fund though;; SCHD.
 
WoodsChick said:
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
Click to expand...
I would be taking as much gains as possible from Nvidia now. It's gone up 10x since 2021. I would sell Nvidia and rebalance the portfolio with the proceeds. Not investment advice.
 
Be careful of the potential impact on your tax bracket, and if old enough for Medicare, beware the possible IRMAA implications. Consider the combined impact of those, along with RMA's (again, age-dependent.

I want to dump our Oracle stock because Ellison is such an awful human being, but my decision to do so impacts all of the above. My tax preparer / attorney retired this year, and I need to find and sit down with somebody qualified to walk us through the finer details.
 
Do you own other large cap stocks? Because most of their CEOs are awful human beings, sort of comes with the territory.

If I had that criteria in my stock picking equation, I wouldn't own anything
 
WoodsChick said:
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
Click to expand...


If your finance lady tripled your IRA in just 4 years then listen to her only.

But please try and get her to join barf and post in this thread so we can all be rolling in dough.
 
Das MotorRad said:
I would be taking as much gains as possible from Nvidia now. It's gone up 10x since 2021. I would sell Nvidia and rebalance the portfolio with the proceeds. Not investment advice.
Click to expand...
+1

Roughly 35% to 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is directly tied to AI-linked or mega-cap tech stocks.

I think it would be good to rebalance to 15% AI-linked tech stocks. Above 15% would be "aggressive".
 
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900ss said:
The late Bob Brinker's advice was no more than 4% of any single holding. Is your finance lady interested in new clients by any chance?
Click to expand...

Uh-oh...4%? Really? Hmm... I don't know if our gal is accepting new clients. I'll ask! Thank you!
GAJ said:
I think the rule of thumb is 10 percent for one stock but my wife has violated that for decades with Apple and done very well.

It sounds like your adviser is on the ball so talk to her.

You DO want to be more cautious as you get older and portfolio diversification is a good thins.

We are heaviest in Real Estate with 53 percent of our total assets there, 25 percent in stocks, 7 percent in munis and the rest in money market.

I think we are moving some of that money market money to a dividend fund though;; SCHD.
Click to expand...

10%. Ok, getting closer. Well, we are totally violating that rule of thumb, too, and of course because it's Nvidia we, too, have done well with it.
Oh, real estate! Right...I forgot about that. See what I mean? :laughing We paid $189k for our house 32 years ago. The last 2 houses listed on our street were both asking $1.495M. The first one sold right away for $2.6M. The 2nd one is pending after 2 open houses on one weekend, one of which was invitation only for the neighbors. That turned into a party as all our long-time neighbors were there! Notch one for Oakland, ya sunzabishes :x
Our Miramonte house doesn't really count as it was an inexpensive cabin when we bought it, and it's still an inexpensive cabin now, only with a ginormously expensive home insurance bill :rolleyes
Thank you GAJ!
Das MotorRad said:
I would be taking as much gains as possible from Nvidia now. It's gone up 10x since 2021. I would sell Nvidia and rebalance the portfolio with the proceeds. Not investment advice.
Click to expand...

Thank you for the input! It's been crazy to watch the growth. I believe the initial investment happened in 2015, I think?
900ss said:
Be careful of the potential impact on your tax bracket, and if old enough for Medicare, beware the possible IRMAA implications. Consider the combined impact of those, along with RMA's (again, age-dependent.

I want to dump our Oracle stock because Ellison is such an awful human being, but my decision to do so impacts all of the above. My tax preparer / attorney retired this year, and I need to find and sit down with somebody qualified to walk us through the finer details.
Click to expand...

Thank you, 900ss! We're not old enough for Medicare yet, but yeah, lots to consider re: taxes and such. In the beginning I wanted to dump anything to do with Elon and the rest of the icky awful people. Finance Lady said she totally understood where I was coming from, but as my financial advisor it was her job to maximize my wealth, and she was advising me to revisit my investment strategy. :laughing
 
Blankpage said:
If your finance lady tripled your IRA in just 4 years then listen to her only.

But please try and get her to join barf and post in this thread so we can all be rolling in dough.
Click to expand...

:laughing I have been listening to her! She seems to have a handle on stuff. I still worry about it, though. These are crazy times we're living in, and everything seems so volatile. I also wonder how long it can keep going, you know? It just seems like all this growth is just not sustainable, but what do I know?

Killroy1999 said:
+1

Roughly 35% to 45% of the S&P 500's market capitalization is directly tied to AI-linked or mega-cap tech stocks.

I think it would be good to rebalance to 15% AI-linked tech stocks. Above 15% would be "aggressive".
Click to expand...

In our minds we are smack in the middle of "aggressive" and "conservative" when it comes to investments. According to your numbers we are way aggressive. Maybe that's why I'm worried about it? I swear life was easier when we were just hard-working stiffs with savings accounts and a mortgage! :laughing
 
WoodsChick said:
:laughing I have been listening to her! She seems to have a handle on stuff. I still worry about it, though. These are crazy times we're living in, and everything seems so volatile. I also wonder how long it can keep going, you know? It just seems like all this growth is just not sustainable, but what do I know?



In our minds we are smack in the middle of "aggressive" and "conservative" when it comes to investments. According to your numbers we are way aggressive. Maybe that's why I'm worried about it? I swear life was easier when we were just hard-working stiffs with savings accounts and a mortgage! :laughing
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You know a lot. PM sent, please disregard with apologies and regrets if not germane. Bogleheads.org is a very informative website.
 
If your account has quadrupled in only 4 years, I'm assuming that's because you kept contributing to it?

If not, your advisor must be doing something extremely risky. The S&P500 grew only about 80% over those 4 years. So she must have been playing with options, getting lucky with market timing strategies, or putting very high amounts of your money into individual companies instead of funds. I'm guessing at least one-third of your money in NVDA? I'd honestly think about dumping her, because what she's doing is essentially gambling.
 
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Reli said:
If your account has quadrupled in only 4 years, I'm assuming that's because you kept contributing to it?

If not, your advisor must be doing something extremely risky. The S&P500 grew only about 80% over those 4 years. So she must have been playing with options, getting lucky with market timing strategies, or putting very high amounts of your money into individual companies instead of funds. I'd honestly think about dumping her, because what she's doing is essentially gambling.
Click to expand...

True, I'd be so angry with her if she had exposed me to $$ millions in gains, so angry 😉
 
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