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Tesla Model 3: End of the Internal-Combustion Engine?

bojangle said:
Well, according to the admittedly small study referenced in my link above, with average mileage of 12,000/year, a Tesla driver would reach about 180,000 after 15 years. The battery should still have between 85-90% of it's original capacity by then. They are reported to be designed to last between 300,000-500,000 miles, and 21-35 years. I'm not really buying that, on average, BEVs will fare any worse in depreciation compared to ICE vehicles.
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85-90% would be absolutely amazing after 15 years. Of course, no Tesla (other than the original Roadster) is that old yet, but there are some that are 10 years old. Are there a lot of 2012 Model S owners out there saying they still have even 90% today?

Just about every EV I’ve seen gets down to 90% before they’ve even hit 5 years old.
 
5-10% degradation happens in the first few years but there seems to be no major degradation beyond that. My experience.
 
bpw said:
There was a lot of talk about Prius needing expensive batteries when they came out too and how that would make them worthless. Turned out most of them are running around with a quarter million miles and original batteries still.

Batteries wear, but its not like a 200,000 mile engine has any value either. The batteries may actually be less of an issue since its so much easier to swap a battery in than it is to refresh a combustion drivetrain. I could see some really long lived shells that just keep getting new batteries and motors every decade or so.

10k for a battery every 150-200,000 miles isn't much different than gas engine maintenance costs.
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To add, BEVs also have a advantage of better battery ballancing over a hybrid since they plug in.

Its not just the cell design, but they pack and system design.

For example, the Nissan Leaf BEV was originally design with poor thermal management and owners living in hot places like Arizona would cook and early kill there batteries. Now the issue is called batter-gate.

Today's Tesla's have a quite advanced heat pump system that has wowed automotive engineers.
 
I think another part of the equation that hasn't been touched on much is modularity (?) and advancements in battery technology.

An old car needing a full engine rebuild doesn't always get the original engine - upgrades and engine swaps are pretty common.

Similarly, I would expect that with the simplicity of a "plug and play" type battery pack, some people are banking on being able to swap for a vastly improved battery 15 years from now to give their EV new life. And from that standpoint, it DOES make a lot of sense. If the EV motors will far outlast the batteries and run for 500k miles or more, then sure, why not dump the battery that only has a 500 mile range in favor of a 2035 model battery that gives you 800 miles of range?
 
TheRobSJ said:
Oh and since you want to get smart with me…

[maximumeffortarrogance]Yes I really know a lot when it comes to this shit. I have forgotten more about cars than could probably ever know about cars even if you tried to learn about them for the rest of your life and the next life again if they decide to give you a do-over. If I choose to bless you with information in one of these car threads here on barf, you should treat it as god damn motherfucking gospel.[/ihavespoken]
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/navysealcopypasta
 
Yeah but being a badass is the full pie, not just one slice. Best to shrink or eliminate the slice of being able to fold in half.
 
Well I think he's mistaken that they will depreciate the same, because when you compare a 15yo gas car with a potentially tired engine/trans compared to a Tesla with a potentially tired battery, all the value in the gas car is tied to the parts getting tired, whereas the motor/s and inverter and all the electronics in a Tesla, are probably still solid. It's unlikely they will depreciate the same because they do not carry their value in the same areas.
 
I mean...it's a rental, what do you expect?

https://www.autoblog.com/2022/09/01/tesla-model-s-plaid-interior-19000-miles-later/

pGD1lyV.jpg
 
Well, he changed it to 15 years now, so we can't. At first it was the criteria of a 10-15 year old Tesla Model S being worth 10-15k, since the battery of a 10-15yo EV is "fairly worthless", but it was changed to 15 because we actually have 10 year old Tesla Model S' now and we could have sorted it out. For reference, the cheapest 2012 in your link is 29k, so he'd have been off by 2-3x.
 
Johndicezx9 said:
Meh, appropriate response was appropriate.... :laughing
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I’ve seen the movie. I know all three acts, which means I know how it ends. I know how the movie was made, and I know all the jobs involved to make it. Hell I even wrote the movie a little bit (my years as a consultant to a Honda helped actually publish some repair procedures). So when someone comes in and says “nuh uh that’s not what happens” it just amazes me. So sorry, but I gotta unzip and take it out to swing it around a bit.


byke said:
Well I think he's mistaken that they will depreciate the same, because when you compare a 15yo gas car with a potentially tired engine/trans compared to a Tesla with a potentially tired battery, all the value in the gas car is tied to the parts getting tired, whereas the motor/s and inverter and all the electronics in a Tesla, are probably still solid. It's unlikely they will depreciate the same because they do not carry their value in the same areas.
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It may not have an engine and transmission, but a Tesla is still a car. All the stuff that goes bad over time/miles will go bad in a Tesla too. Suspension/steering/brakes, trim (insert joke that it’s bad from day one), various electrics like exterior lights or power door locks and windows, or perhaps that gigantic infotainment system goes on the fritz.

A 2013 Model S Performance was a $90k car when it was new. Used examples today, even with the inflation special bloated used car market prices with typical mileage are $35k. Puts it at around 40% of its original value which is doing a helluva lot better than the BMW/M-B/Audi big sedans that were also about $90k from that time…those go for mid $20k range. However, as I have said many times in the past, those European luxobarges have their value fall off a cliff shortly after there’s no chance of any warranty coverage. And a 10 year old one is a definitely at that point. Teslas warranty on the Model S battery is 8/150. Year 9-10, you might get some kind of goodwill coverage (maybe you only pay a portion of the repair), but after 10 years it’s your dime for sure. We’re just now starting to get 10+ year old Teslas on the market. But they’ve entered a market where there is no “cheap used cars” right now, and you have absurd prices like 1980’s ancient Toyota pickups out there trading in the teens, so it’s kind of hard to say that the $35k they’re getting is really the true number. When prices stabilize, and these Teslas are 15 years old? I think I’m gonna be right and replacement battery costs will total the car.
 
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TheRobSJ said:
I’ve seen the movie. I know all three acts, which means I know how it ends. I know how the movie was made, and I know all the jobs involved to make it. Hell I even wrote the movie a little bit (my years as a consultant to a Honda helped actually publish some repair procedures). So when someone comes in and says “nuh uh that’s not what happens” it just amazes me. So sorry, but I gotta unzip and take it out to swing it around a bit.




It may not have an engine and transmission, but a Tesla is still a car. All the stuff that goes bad over time/miles will go bad in a Tesla too. Suspension/steering/brakes, trim (insert joke that it’s bad from day one), various electrics like exterior lights or power door locks and windows, or perhaps that gigantic infotainment system goes on the fritz.

A 2013 Model S Performance was a $90k car when it was new. Used examples today, even with the inflation special bloated used car market prices with typical mileage are $35k. Puts it at around 40% of its original value which is doing a helluva lot better than the BMW/M-B/Audi big sedans that were also about $90k from that time…those go for mid $20k range. However, as I have said many times in the past, those European luxobarges have their value fall off a cliff shortly after there’s no chance of any warranty coverage. And a 10 year old one is a definitely at that point. Teslas warranty on the Model S battery is 8/150. Year 9-10, you might get some kind of goodwill coverage (maybe you only pay a portion of the repair), but after 10 years it’s your dime for sure. We’re just now starting to get 10+ year old Teslas on the market. But they’ve entered a market where there is no “cheap used cars” right now, and you have absurd prices like 1980’s ancient Toyota pickups out there trading in the teens, so it’s kind of hard to say that the $35k they’re getting is really the true number. When prices stabilize, and these Teslas are 15 years old? I think I’m gonna be right and replacement battery costs will total the car.
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There is always going to be a fairly high floor price for these vehicles due to the high cost of materials of the battery unless costs magically come down in the next few years. If that happens, it still won't decrease the value much since you can get it to a brand new running state with a cheap battery replacement.

The engine and tranny in a beat-up german POS are going to be worthless after 15 years, we can agree on that.
 
NorCalAthlete said:
I think another part of the equation that hasn't been touched on much is modularity (?) and advancements in battery technology.

An old car needing a full engine rebuild doesn't always get the original engine - upgrades and engine swaps are pretty common.

Similarly, I would expect that with the simplicity of a "plug and play" type battery pack, some people are banking on being able to swap for a vastly improved battery 15 years from now to give their EV new life. And from that standpoint, it DOES make a lot of sense. If the EV motors will far outlast the batteries and run for 500k miles or more, then sure, why not dump the battery that only has a 500 mile range in favor of a 2035 model battery that gives you 800 miles of range?
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Yup.

This is probably a lot easier with EVs than ICE vehicles. The Motors are pretty small, even really powerful ones, most of the size and weight is the battery, which is huge, but also can be moved about to fit the space it's needed in.
 
TheRobSJ said:
I’ve seen the movie. I know all three acts, which means I know how it ends. I know how the movie was made, and I know all the jobs involved to make it. Hell I even wrote the movie a little bit (my years as a consultant to a Honda helped actually publish some repair procedures). So when someone comes in and says “nuh uh that’s not what happens” it just amazes me. So sorry, but I gotta unzip and take it out to swing it around a bit.

It may not have an engine and transmission, but a Tesla is still a car. All the stuff that goes bad over time/miles will go bad in a Tesla too. Suspension/steering/brakes, trim (insert joke that it’s bad from day one), various electrics like exterior lights or power door locks and windows, or perhaps that gigantic infotainment system goes on the fritz.

A 2013 Model S Performance was a $90k car when it was new. Used examples today, even with the inflation special bloated used car market prices with typical mileage are $35k. Puts it at around 40% of its original value which is doing a helluva lot better than the BMW/M-B/Audi big sedans that were also about $90k from that time…those go for mid $20k range. However, as I have said many times in the past, those European luxobarges have their value fall off a cliff shortly after there’s no chance of any warranty coverage. And a 10 year old one is a definitely at that point. Teslas warranty on the Model S battery is 8/150. Year 9-10, you might get some kind of goodwill coverage (maybe you only pay a portion of the repair), but after 10 years it’s your dime for sure. We’re just now starting to get 10+ year old Teslas on the market. But they’ve entered a market where there is no “cheap used cars” right now, and you have absurd prices like 1980’s ancient Toyota pickups out there trading in the teens, so it’s kind of hard to say that the $35k they’re getting is really the true number. When prices stabilize, and these Teslas are 15 years old? I think I’m gonna be right and replacement battery costs will total the car.
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That's why you get the benefit of the doubt, because we can pretty much get a 15yo Tesla if we look at a 2008 Roadster, but those obviously have collector value baked in, which is why we're not talking about those just the same as how we're not talking about 80's Toyota trucks. And to be fair, all Tesla's will have at least some iPhone-user-mania value attached to it, even second/third-hand.

The most concise pieces in dispute is this part "Not saying the 10 year old Model S is $10-15k. I’m saying the 15 year old one will be" and that's presumably based on the part where you said that a "10-15yo EV battery would be fairly worthless". We have 10yo EV batteries in those Tesla's and those older cars used the A+ grade Panasonic 18650's, which there is no publicly available datasheet for, but we can chart the capacity loss over charge cycles with lower grade cells. The lower grade cells fall off pretty quick after 500 cycles, but they're still at 85% at 500 cycles. Many charts don't go beyond 500 and the capacity falloff in that period is very linear with quality cells.

Tesla claims 1500 cycles, which I personally think is bs, but who knows. I haven't seen you run any numbers here. I can get more technical data from Todd's flashlight review on youtube than what you've posted here as it applies to a Tesla battery and the car's subsequent value. Like...show your math. Are you basing on cycles? Mileage? Calendar aging? Because we already know you're wrong at 10 years and you're probably going to be wrong about the batteries being worthless at 15 years if Tesla is somehow correct with their claim of cycles. You would be right strictly on calendar aging at that point, because 15 years at 15k/yr is 225k, which at a 250mi charge cycle is 900 cycles, or 1125 cycles at 200mi. And you're virtually guaranteed to be right if they're using regular consumer grade cells, which we know they aren't. Really as close as any of us can get at 10 years is, yes, we already know 10 years is fine. At 15 years, all any of us can say now is, yeah, maybe, who knows. One thing I do know is that if a Model S battery is still hanging in there at 15 years, let say the range has dropped from 265mi to 180mi(68%), the thing isn't selling for 10k.
 
The other thing to consider is that even if my Mom’s $40,000 Tesla has zero value in 150,000 miles (which seems unlikely), she will have avoided buying $20-25,000 in gas over that timeframe.
 
byke said:
I think that's what he's talking about, that battery replacement cost equals the car's resale value, if that resale value depreciation is equal to gas cars. And many are going to need a new battery when they move into the used market, because that's going to be a huge trigger for people to sell them. Imagine the Avalon that's worth 10k now, also needing a full engine/trans/ball joint/tire/brake rebuild. Who buys it for 10k? It'd be sold for 2k for parts at best. The Tesla is a little bit different, because the value of the battery essentially equates to the value of the entire Avalon, but on the Avalon needing a full rebuild, most of the high dollar parts are worthless, whereas the Tesla has the motor/s and all the other electronics that still hold good value. Due to that, I think we'll see Tesla's depreciate less and they'll pretty much never hit that 2k junk number like an Avalon needing a 10k rebuild easily could.
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I've never seen a 10-15 year old Avalon need much more than an oil change, but I haven't actually seen (looked at) many of them at all. What I do know is my 22-year-old Camry has been entirely fluid changes, and after a quarter million miles, I'm expecting at least another 100k out of it. I haven't even touched the suspension.

bpw said:
The other thing to consider is that even if my Mom’s $40,000 Tesla has zero value in 150,000 miles (which seems unlikely), she will have avoided buying $20-25,000 in gas over that timeframe.
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I guess if you have free solar charging.

I read Teslas consume 36,000kWh per 150,000 miles. I also read that the average cost of electricity in CA is $0.26 per kWh. Well, that's only a bit over nine grand.

Maybe an Avalon would average 28 mpg, or about 5300 gallons to go that 150k. That certainly costs a lot more and required some periodic servicing.

I guess that whatever the Tesla is worth at 150k miles, you can add the difference in operating cost. If Rob is right, it looks like a wash.
 
ctwo said:
I've never seen a 10-15 year old Avalon need much more than an oil change, but I haven't actually seen (looked at) many of them at all. What I do know is my 22-year-old Camry has been entirely fluid changes, and after a quarter million miles, I'm expecting at least another 100k out of it. I haven't even touched the suspension.



I guess if you have free solar charging.

I read Teslas consume 36,000kWh per 150,000 miles. I also read that the average cost of electricity in CA is $0.26 per kWh. Well, that's only a bit over nine grand.

Maybe an Avalon would average 28 mpg, or about 5300 gallons to go that 150k. That certainly costs a lot more and required some periodic servicing.

I guess that whatever the Tesla is worth at 150k miles, you can add the difference in operating cost. If Rob is right, it looks like a wash.
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Most EVs charge on off-peak discounted rates, so its like going back to $1/ gallon of gasoline.

Most EVs are rated at 100 MPGe (1 gallon of gasoline=33.7 kWh)

The Model 3 is rated at 142 MPGe combined

Check it out at fueleconomy.gov
 
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