Tesla Model 3: End of the Internal-Combustion Engine?

[TheRobSJ]

I disagree on one point.


Basically all of BMWs line up, including their EVs, look ridiculous. They have gone too far with their beaver teeth grilles.

(seriously, I think Hyundai is a much bigger threat to Teslas EV dominance than BMW.)

I agree that the grill is a bit much on the i4. But the rest of it is just fine. And you can get a very nice interior with lots of choices of materials and colors.

How about the i5 that’s about to come out? That thing looks absolutely amazing.

 

[TheRobSJ]

What I like about the Tesla is it feels different than other cars.

Sure Tesla has its build quality issues but I am coming from a Range Rover that grenaded itself at 170k miles and currently drive a 20 year old F150 with 310k on the clock. A basic Model 3 is a huge step up.

What’s different about them is the very minimalist interior. Maybe not so obvious, but when I tell you this, you’ll realize why it looks and feels that way. Their intention with making it so minimal was because they were thinking these things would be driving themselves soon enough, so you as the driver didn’t need much to interact with. As you’d basically be checked out and just sitting there on your phone as if you were in the back of an Uber.

And yes a new Tesla will be a huge step up compared to what you’re coming from, but quite frankly anything will be that.

 

[TheRobSJ]

Teslas have a premium sound system. It was build in house by sound system experts that had previously worked for top rated sound system companies. I have no complaints there.

No massaging seats, but they are very comfortable. Probably the best I've owned.

As far as poor interior quality, I read this a lot. I don't really agree. It may not be super fancy, but minimalism is the name of their game. I find some luxury interiors a little too busy for my taste. Also, don't really find it any worse than my 328i interior, sport line, with leather seats. It seems about the same quality to me. I rather like Tesla's exposed grain real wood on the dash compared to the black shiny stuff on my BMW.

EV and PHEVs can have some pretty nice sounding audio. When they’re running electric, you don’t have the background noise of the engine to fight with.

Granted this is at all the way at the end of a spectrum, but you can do minimalism and be extremely luxurious feeling. Rolls Royce does that very well. BMW has the dreaded piano black, but they also offer the open pore wood trims too. Everyone seems to be doing that these days.

 

[ScarySpikes]

I agree that the grill is a bit much on the i4. But the rest of it is just fine. And you can get a very nice interior with lots of choices of materials and colors.

How about the i5 that’s about to come out? That thing looks absolutely amazing.

The grill is too big and silly looking for my taste still.

I like the 2 series coupe and the Z4 of their current line up.

I like Audis styling better TBH, but right now they are focusing hard on converting their SUVs to EVs and most of the Sedans and coupes are still ICE only.

Right now I think that the best looking EV in the 'normal car' price range is the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai. Despite it pretending to be an SUV instead of being a hatchback like it should be. I like the Id2all concept from VW, and the upcoming mini EV looks pretty fun too. I like the Ioniq 6 though the fact that it doesn't look like the concept they made for it will always feel like a missed opportunity.

 

[Killroy1999]

Tesla replaced ICE BMWs along with quite a few other ICE vehicles on that list because I believe (though is like to see some actual surveys of “hey what made you decide to go EV”) people were curious about getting an EV, and like I said you get the most range for the money with the Model 3/Y. And let’s face it, Tesla has a bit of FOMO going for it like having an iPhone.

But now there is a proper BMW EV that has decent range, doesn’t look ridiculous, and actually drives like a proper BMW, I’d love to know if Tesla has that much draw for someone today looking to go from an ICE car to EV. The BMW i4 does cost more and they’re not exactly easy to get, so it’s not going to sway a whole lot of people away from the Tesla, but it certainly has to taking a bite out of the numbers.

And Tesla definitely can’t be the only EV out there. Mostly why they haven’t updated/advanced a generation in their current platform. Hasn’t been a need to since no real competition. And they knew it. That’s why it’s been the same car for so long. Almost like a repeat of Model T (the old Ford), they barely even offer any colors for the car, 5-6 paint and only 2 interior. I swear a white (the only color that isn’t a $1000 or more “option”) Tesla is so common these days, I don’t even see them.

But their time is up and the market is changing rapidly here in 2023-24. And I seriously hope they’ve got a lot more up their sleeve than just new headlights and a couple other knick knacks to keep up with the rising competition. And for fucks sake Tesla learn how to paint and line panels up! Jesus. Some of you may think your individual Tesla maybe is built just fine, but from what I see I’d say their fit and finish is by far the worst in the entire industry. Like not even close.

Check out the actual sales...

 

[ScarySpikes]

Check out the actual sales...

So, in Q1 2022, other EVs were like a third of Tesla sales.

In Q1 2023, other EVs were at over half of Tesla sales.

The market is growing overall, but Tesla's market share is shrinking.

That is also US only.

Globally, they are not nearly as dominant.

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 

[Killroy1999]

So, in Q1 2022, other EVs were like a third of Tesla sales.

In Q1 2023, other EVs were at over half of Tesla sales.

The market is growing overall, but Tesla's market share is shrinking.

That is also US only.

Globally, they are not nearly as dominant.

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

You are right, BYD growth is very impressive.

Watch out if Chinese brands come to the US.

I'm still surprised at Tesla's sales over all legacy EV automakers. Look at Toyota.

 

[bojangle]

Teslas move to delimit their charging network to other OEM's is a bit puzzling if they wanted to keep lock on Teslas best (auto) asset: their charge network. There's something else afoot with the multiple deals they've made and I'm thinking it's battery sales. We may see Tesla sell their auto division and focus on battery/ infrastructure going forward. This may be why we're also not seeing much new product in the pipeline. Who's the best buyer for the Tesla auto division? I'm thinking Fiat, Nissan (their brand cache sucks), Or Tata.



Check back @100K miles.

Why? Do sound systems implode at 100K miles?

So, in Q1 2022, other EVs were like a third of Tesla sales.

In Q1 2023, other EVs were at over half of Tesla sales.

The market is growing overall, but Tesla's market share is shrinking.

That is also US only.

Globally, they are not nearly as dominant.

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

You are right, BYD growth is very impressive.

Watch out if Chinese brands come to the US.

I'm still surprised at Tesla's sales over all legacy EV automakers. Look at Toyota.

Always always be very skeptical about anything coming out of China. The county puts on facades and information doesn't flow freely.

According to this video, China's EV sales numbers aren't as impressive as they appear. This is so wasteful of our precious natural resources.

[YouTube]1SEfwoqKRU8[/youtube]

 

[ScarySpikes]

You are right, BYD growth is very impressive.

Watch out if Chinese brands come to the US.

I'm still surprised at Tesla's sales over all legacy EV automakers. Look at Toyota.

I'm not focused on BYD as much. Toyota only has one EV model and like 2 overpriced PHEVs, it's not surprising they are low down. The point is that Tesla is not nearly as dominant in sales if you look globally.

Always always be very skeptical about anything coming out of China. The county puts on facades and information doesn't flow freely.

According to this video, China's EV sales numbers aren't as impressive as they appear. This is so wasteful of our precious natural resources.

[YouTube]1SEfwoqKRU8[/youtube]

Agreed WRT Chinese numbers.

That video is absolutely gross. Obvious evidence of waste and fraud.

 

[TheRobSJ]

You are right, BYD growth is very impressive.

Watch out if Chinese brands come to the US.

I'm still surprised at Tesla's sales over all legacy EV automakers. Look at Toyota.

Volvo/Polestar (owned by Geely) is as close as we’re gonna get to a Chinese brand coming here. Yeah they certainly could sell more, but it’s not like there isn’t a ridiculous population base to sell to in their own country. Plus all the hassle to get set up here, tariffs, transport, and getting their cars to certify with our DOT standards? Nah we won’t be seeing BYD anytime soon.

What’s getting to be just the biggest elephant in the room ever is Toyota still sitting out of the game, as big of a company as they are. Or really any of the Japanese manufacturers. Toyota is finally getting serious here with bringing in some EVs this year in the form of a Lexus crossover. Honda has been so late in getting started they had to buy their first two cars in from GM and we’ll see those as the Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX, which are riding on GM’s Ultium platform. Honda’s own in house EVs are probably at least 3-4 years away.

 

[Killroy1999]

I'm not focused on BYD as much. Toyota only has one EV model and like 2 overpriced PHEVs, it's not surprising they are low down. The point is that Tesla is not nearly as dominant in sales if you look globally.



Agreed WRT Chinese numbers.

That video is absolutely gross. Obvious evidence of waste and fraud.

Serpentza is a good channel. When I was working as an engineer in China I learned a lot about China watching his videos exploring on little motorcycles. China is weird and that is disgusting. Charlie Munger is still plugging BYD as he praises Tesla.

Yes, less dominant globally. Yet, there is still quite an imbalance. A healthy market would have much closer competition.

Ford and GM announced that they are getting ~$12 Billion collectively for battery factories.

What is weird is that Ford received a $6 Billion ATVM DOE loan in 2009 and was late on payments just a few years ago. I can't find an announcement where they actually repaid their lone. Today, it costs twice as much for Ford to make a EV as what they sell it. So, maybe they will make it up in volume . I remember when another American brand was in a similar position.

 

[ScarySpikes]

Serpentza is a good channel. When I was working as an engineer in China I learned a lot about China watching his videos exploring on little motorcycles. China is weird and that is disgusting. Charlie Munger is still plugging BYD as he praises Tesla.

Yes, less dominant globally. Yet, there is still quite an imbalance. A healthy market would have much closer competition.

Ford and GM announced that they are getting ~$12 Billion collectively for battery factories.

What is weird is that Ford received a $6 Billion ATVM DOE loan in 2009 and was late on payments just a few years ago. I can't find an announcement where they actually repaid their lone. Today, it costs twice as much for Ford to make a EV as what they sell it. So, maybe they will make it up in volume . I remember when another American brand was in a similar position.

It does not cost Ford twice as much to make an EV as what they sell it for. The only way to arrive at that statistic is to basically just look at the investment Ford is putting into building EVs compared to EV sales. That's just silly. Ford and other companies are obviously investing more into EVs than they are making from EVs, because they are growing out their EV divisions and that's really expensive. To be honest, the fact that Tesla isn't investing sufficiently in R&D, and honestly wasting the money that they are investing on their nonfunctional 'self driving' tech instead of improving their production methodology to get better build quality and/or building new and redesigned models, is a big part of the problem.

 

[Killroy1999]

It does not cost Ford twice as much to make an EV as what they sell it for. The only way to arrive at that statistic is to basically just look at the investment Ford is putting into building EVs compared to EV sales. That's just silly. Ford and other companies are obviously investing more into EVs than they are making from EVs, because they are growing out their EV divisions and that's really expensive. To be honest, the fact that Tesla isn't investing sufficiently in R&D, and honestly wasting the money that they are investing on their nonfunctional 'self driving' tech instead of improving their production methodology to get better build quality and/or building new and redesigned models, is a big part of the problem.

You are going to have to argue with Ford because they announced a negative 102% margin for their EV business recently. I shared this info days ago. Here is the screenshot.

 

[tzrider]

It does not cost Ford twice as much to make an EV as what they sell it for. The only way to arrive at that statistic is to basically just look at the investment Ford is putting into building EVs compared to EV sales. That's just silly. Ford and other companies are obviously investing more into EVs than they are making from EVs, because they are growing out their EV divisions and that's really expensive.

The reported statistic is EBIT margin, not gross margin. That is the stat to use when standing up an entirely new line of business.

 

[ScarySpikes]

You are going to have to argue with Ford because they announced a negative 102% margin for their EV business recently. I shared this info days ago. Here is the screenshot.

To be very clear, this data confirms what I'm saying, not what you said.

Ford is putting twice as much money into their entire EV division than they are earning in that division. That's different from saying it takes twice as much money to make an individual Mach E as they are charging for one.

 

[Killroy1999]

To be very clear, this data confirms what I'm saying, not what you said.

Ford is putting twice as much money into their entire EV division than they are earning in that division. That's different from saying it takes twice as much money to make an individual Mach E as they are charging for one.

I probably should have said operating margin or EBIT like I did the first time.

Anyway, like I was saying, Ford is where Tesla was 5 years ago - maybe?

It's not like Tesla is standing still. They are not ready to announce until they are closer to production, but they are working on the "next-gen" vehicle.

 

[ScarySpikes]

I probably should have said operating margin or EBIT like I did the first time.

Anyway, like I was saying, Ford is where Tesla was 5 years ago - maybe?

It's not like Tesla is standing still. They are not ready to announce until they are closer to production, but they are working on the "next-gen" vehicle.

The problem is, Tesla hasn't really proven that they can execute new products lately.

The Semi: delayed for years, and when it came out the performance was not up to what snuff for the things that semi trucks care about. Sales have been poor.

The Cybertruck, delayed 2-3 years at least. They missed out on being first to market by a lot, and, frankly, the design as is looks like a worse truck than the competition.

Their 'smaller model' only rumors so far. If it has the same production delays as we are getting used to from Tesla, it'll be, what, 2028, maybe later?

FSD, still isn't performing close to as it should. There is a good chance it'll lead to a massive lawsuit.

 

[AbsolutEnduser]

FSD, still isn't performing close to as it should.

In my ride along with Ross Gerber, Tesla
Full Self-Driving ran a stop sign at 35mph

https://twitter.com/RealDanODowd/status/1672325190112641024

 

[tzrider]

If there were no cops or cross traffic, maybe it worked as intended?

 

[ScarySpikes]

If there were no cops or cross traffic, maybe it worked as intended?

There is a video. There were cars coming from both cross traffic directions, the Tesla would have hit them were the driver not paying attention.

Also that yoke wheel still looks really stupid.