2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

[Reli]

This was the first year in 10 we did not withdraw money from our IRA accounts, though did do a Roth rollover.

For 10 years ending in 2025 we withdrew about 9 percent/year, not to cover daily costs per se, but for taxes on Roth rollovers and major remodels at two of our properties which totaled almost $300k.

We are now a bit over 80 percent Roth at age 69 w/ SS kicking in for both of use late this year.

The interesting thing though is, due of course to pretty darned good market conditions those 10 year though we are hardly aggressive investors, is that the total IRA+Roth balance is 14 percent higher than it was in 2016 when we started that trend of annual withdrawals. As we were retired in 2008 we could not add at all to the IRA balances, it all had to come from internal growth.

Just food for thought for those noodling effects on IRA of steady withdrawals.

Obviously history does not predict the future but I'm a bit surprised that it came out that way what with all the hand wringing in the financial press over the 4 percent withdrawal rule of thumb and whatnot.

The 4% withdrawal rule is BS, it's based on a very pessimistic market return outlook, along with a very presumptuous assumption that you want to leave the entire principle intact to pass down to your kids (who frankly don't deserve all of that, IMO)

 

[900ss]

The 4% withdrawal rule is BS, it's based on a very pessimistic market return outlook, along with a very presumptuous assumption that you care about leaving the principle intact to pass down to your kids (who frankly don't deserve it IMO)

Funny, when we met with a Fidelity "advisor" in April to see how they will do vs how I have done - we next meet in October, when I will most likely fire her - after the Monte Carlo simulation presentation, she told us that we need to consider certain tax strategies so that our son isn't faced with a huge tax burden. I told her that when he is faced with that, I am dead, and frankly my dear, I won't give a damn!

 

[Reli]

19% rise on its first day, to become the 6th most valuable company in the world. Meanwhile it's bleeding cash ($13B loss since 2023), and generates weakass revenue

 

[Sharxfan]

19% rise on its first day, to become the 6th most valuable company in the world. Meanwhile it's bleeding cash ($13B loss since 2023), and generates weakass revenue

the cash bleed is due to a hardware rich test plan. They are burning through money doing something no one has done before but when they get it right the cash bleed will go away and they will have cornered the market on reusable heavy lift spacecraft that will dominate the market until some copycat comes along and does it but it did take Blue Origin 15 years to copy the Falcon 9 and they still aren't flying more than twice a year and won't fly again until they can rebuild the pad that blew up with their 3rd rocket so.........

 

[Reli]

ok

 

[FXCLM5]

Funny, when we met with a Fidelity "advisor" in April to see how they will do vs how I have done - we next meet in October, when I will most likely fire her - after the Monte Carlo simulation presentation, she told us that we need to consider certain tax strategies so that our son isn't faced with a huge tax burden. I told her that when he is faced with that, I am dead, and frankly my dear, I won't give a damn!

Weird I am enrolled in fidelity premium wealth financial management advising and they do not push anything

Literally only talks about investment vessels but he never suggests anything, making him give me pros and cons on this and that and he gives it to me, he's in texas and usually needs to research all the Cali stuff, but I'm pleasantly happy with this service

 

[FXCLM5]

19% rise on its first day, to become the 6th most valuable company in the world. Meanwhile it's bleeding cash ($13B loss since 2023), and generates weakass revenue

So you don't think you can make $$$ off Elon, I think your missing out

 

[mercurial]

but when they get it right the cash bleed will go away and they will have cornered the market on reusable heavy lift spacecraft that will dominate the market...

Well, what's the market? Aside from sending satellites into space, which is an OK business worth maybe tens to low hundreds of B at best, where does the 2T market cap come from?

Even if they can bring down the price 100X, it's still super expensive to send things into space, and space is generally empty (as in, what's the economic value you are accessing?)

 

[FXCLM5]

We gonna launch our trash into space, watch it'll only be time where we run out of ocean and land and air to store or shit

Space force gotta setup base on moon before chinaaaa and space ai data centers, that's gotta be 1 trill right there

Also Elon minted 4000 or so spcx employees millionaires today, everyone from janitors to welders to engineers and executives.

This companies been around for over 20+ years

 

[Blankpage]

$2B for hopes and dreams

Where’s the Shut up and take my money meme

 

[Sharxfan]

Well, what's the market? Aside from sending satellites into space, which is an OK business worth maybe tens to low hundreds of B at best, where does the 2T market cap come from?

Even if they can bring down the price 100X, it's still super expensive to send things into space, and space is generally empty (as in, what's the economic value you are accessing?)

It is expensive and people will pay them to fling thier shit into outer space. They make their costs low and charge customers less than competitors but still make a mint because they reuse their rocket and everyone else is way more expensive because they throw away the rocket everytime they launch. SpaceX has launched 10x more mass into space than anyone including all nation states with rockets. NASA and US Gov are a big part of it. That's the market.

Although I do believe they are way over valued due to the AI BS but the rocket company is solid.

 

[mercurial]

yea I don't disagree that the rocket biz is cool stuff with really solid tech. I just don't think it's remotely big enough of a market to justify the market cap (currently, at least.) The whole thing rides on a sci-fi masturbatory fantasy.

caddywumpus you goin big on the SPCX puts!?

 

[Caddywumpus]

yea I don't disagree that the rocket biz is cool stuff with really solid tech. I just don't think it's remotely big enough of a market to justify the market cap (currently, at least.) The whole thing rides on a sci-fi masturbatory fantasy.

caddywumpus you goin big on the SPCX puts!?

Eventually if priced right they might go into my insurance profile. I take 10% of my gains and buy puts on vastly overvalued companies from my proprietary methodology. If the market tanks I will have a decent amount of chow.

 

[Caddywumpus]

It is expensive and people will pay them to fling thier shit into outer space. They make their costs low and charge customers less than competitors but still make a mint because they reuse their rocket and everyone else is way more expensive because they throw away the rocket everytime they launch. SpaceX has launched 10x more mass into space than anyone including all nation states with rockets. NASA and US Gov are a big part of it. That's the market.

Although I do believe they are way over valued due to the AI BS but the rocket company is solid.

The rocket part brakes even. Starlink generates income. The rest loses money. To the tune of 4 billion in the hole. Ad even if they are cheaper to put things in orbit they are by no means the only provider and other groups are making inroads. Its not like they have a monopoly on launch. Also a VAST majority of SPCXs launches are starlinks which only have a lifespan of 5 years and burn out at an incredible rate. Starlink is great for anyone in a rural area, but a vast majority of customers are going to be in populated areas like cities.

 

[Sharxfan]

The rocket part brakes even. Starlink generates income. The rest loses money. To the tune of 4 billion in the hole. Ad even if they are cheaper to put things in orbit they are by no means the only provider and other groups are making inroads. Its not like they have a monopoly on launch. Also a VAST majority of SPCXs launches are starlinks which only have a lifespan of 5 years and burn out at an incredible rate. Starlink is great for anyone in a rural area, but a vast majority of customers are going to be in populated areas like cities.

A lot of ships and planes are switching to Starlink and you forget not everywhere is the USA Starlink is a global ISP. Once Starship is operational there is no competitor on lift capacity and once it becomes available there will be new objects to throw into space that will take advantage of the capacity. You say they are ctaching up but they are only catching up to Falcon 9 which is 15 year old tech now. no one is again close to starship and even if they switch from trying to copy Falcon 9 it will be probably at least 15 years again before they even get close.

 

[Caddywumpus]

A lot of ships and planes are switching to Starlink and you forget not everywhere is the USA Starlink is a global ISP. Once Starship is operational there is no competitor on lift capacity and once it becomes available there will be new objects to throw into space that will take advantage of the capacity. You say they are ctaching up but they are only catching up to Falcon 9 which is 15 year old tech now. no one is again close to starship and even if they switch from trying to copy Falcon 9 it will be probably at least 15 years again before they even get close.

They have 10.3 million subscribers. Just because you can fly an A380 doesnt mean its commercially viable for most uses. Again even if they captured 100% of launch business, the revenue alone from the launch side of the business is braking even. not losing, not making money. And they have a lot of competition. The upcoming BO has equal lift capabilities in their heavy configuration. Will it pan out? Cant say. Falcon 9 has a ton of up and coming competition as well.

and until BE and Starship are actually viable, which remains to be seen, theres very limited case use.

But yes 10.3 million monthly subscribers worldwide for starlink is huge. ATT has 109.3 in north america alone, and 24 million more in South America. However if you look at starlink from an infastructure perspective you have 7-10,000 satelites that burn up every 5 years. The accounting on SPCX is colorful to say the least.

Again, most of SPCX, according to SPCX, is not in their launch business nor starlink. its in their AI Business. Which... checks notes.... loses money hand over fist. Again im staying far away from this until the dust settles. My investment thesis is simple. I invest in companies I like and my strategy has paid off 50+% returns for years. I started 2020 with basically nothing I was financially depleted to being financially secure today.

 

[FXCLM5]

You guys all crazy to not see this is pumped and dump and can't see where $$$ can be made, it's up almost 20% 2nd day in market lol

Still a long term play

Space

Is the final frontier

 

[augustiron]

Over $200 after hours right now